Coup d’Trump

Trump Lays the Psychological Groundwork for His Power Grab

A number of times in his election night speech Trump made the claim that his margins in a number of the undeclared states were too sizable for Biden to overcome. This was in an effort to bolster his claim that he had already won the election and any other result would be fraudulent.

This is not true.

AK: 57.8%
AZ: 38.6%
GA: 62.6%
MI: 59.4%
NV: 50.0%
NC: 63.5%
PA: 67.5%
WI: 49.1%

These are the percentages of the uncounted votes Biden needs to take each of the 8 open states. He doesn’t need all of these states, just enough of them to get to 270 electors. As of this writing Biden is ahead in AZ and WI and has a razor thin margin in NV. At this point most of the remaining ballots are mail-in or absentee, which consensus expects to skew Democrat (in some cases heavily so, like PA which doesn’t even start counting mail-in ballots till election day). Thus AZ, WI and NV are pretty safe bets for Biden, requiring him to secure however many of the other 5 states will take him to 270.

With the late ballots skewing blue in general, strongly in some states, it would not be at all surprising if Biden gained enough states to win both the popular vote and an Electoral College victory, despite Trump’s baseless claims that this is a mathematical impossibility without the benefit of fraud.

The numbers were changing throughout me compiling this post, so these calculations are based on numbers from Fox News as of 4:00am 11/4/20.